The Value of 2023 Predictions

Bull sitting on toilet

Hi ,

The Predictions for 2023 are in and they are worth…

Two Words…

“1) Another name for a male cow..” + “2) What comes from the rear of the male cow…”

These market predictions are really worth nothing more than as material for a pub quiz night, but way too many people blindly trust them.

For example, let’s look at Blackrock’s prediction for 2022 that they made on 13 December, 2021 (https://citywire.com/selector/news/three-themes-that-blackrock-predicts-will-dominate-markets-in-2022/a2375208).

“..mildly higher inflation will be met with a muted central bank response, keeping real rates historically low… Stocks will thrive, but bonds will still suffer as the yield curve modestly steepens… a combination of good growth dynamics and a low real rate environment should be supportive for risk and equities…”

Not to pick on Blackrock, but if you had followed their advice, you would have been totally screwed… by the end of January 2022

Which brings me to the point of this message..

Your greatest opportunities can often lie in doing the opposite of what the herd is following or blindly chasing at the moment.

This includes hero worshipping…

Copying Elon Musk will not make you successful or rich…

How he runs Tesla and Twitter has only shown that he’s like you and me… a flawed human being

But in some ways weaker because he’s got a “Hypochondriac Ego”. Instead of making a winner out of his silly bet, he’s hunting everywhere for “enemies” to fire.

So as you face the challenges of 2023, ignore the predictions.

Instead, keep in mind common sense principles, especially when people try to sell you something to make your business bigger, faster, and more valuable.

Here are a couple of my favourites..

If it’s too good to be true….If it’s too good to be true….  It is. Not much to say here.  If your BS meter starts skyrocketing when being sold than listen to it.

When people come to me with “incredible deals” and I don’t know who they are I ask a simple two word question..When people come to me with “incredible deals” and I don’t know who they are I ask a simple two word question..

Why Me?

Enjoy the dance as they try to answer it.  The people who are the real deal will have an answer that makes sense.  The rest.. BS…

You have to act now….  Umm why?

Scarcity is an old but powerful tool to pressure you into buying.  The fear you will miss out if you don’t buy now.

Why the scarcity and is the seller honest about it?

I’ve bought expensive things from sellers who were honest about why their deals were ending.

One was selling lifetime memberships to fund a marketing push. The offer would end as would the opportunity to get a lifetime membership.

This person was as good as their word and so the decision was easy to make.

Often, however, sellers try to be too clever.

They read on some bathroom stall wall how to manipulate a sale by creating false urgency or scarcity.

And so they try to do it..

And they fail.

I see them often in my emails.

An email comes in and shouts how it’s my last chance to save 40% on a program or this deal is gone forever in 48 hours.

It expires and then ….

The same shouting clown comes back into my email two weeks later… with the…

drum roll…

SAME last chance offer.

Rinse.. Repeat.. Cycle.. Repeat.

So basically, if there’s no good reason for the scarcity or urgency, ignore the pressure and only act if it makes sense–not because you’re afraid of missing out.

I can go on and on, but you get the idea.

Here’s to a happy and prosperous 2023 to you.

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